Fewer Layoffs, Fewer Jobs: America's 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' Trap

A 4.1% unemployment rate makes the US labor market look fine. The hiring and quits rates tell a different story: companies are not cutting people, but they are not adding them either. The first thing to break is not the jobless line. It is the pay ladder for people who already have jobs.

MacroSeptember 7, 2026