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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

The committee inside the Fed that actually sets the policy rate. It decides at each scheduled meeting and, quarterly, publishes members’ own rate paths as

What it isThe committee inside the Fed that actually sets the policy rate. It decides at each scheduled meeting and, quarterly, publishes members’ own rate paths as dots.Why an investor watches itThe dot plot and the tone of the minutes often move markets more than the decision itself. Markets trade what comes next, not what has already happened.

25bp Wasn't the Scary Part. Time Is - How September's FOMC Rewrote the Rate Path

The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years, but the bigger story for investors is how long elevated rates could stay in place, possibly through 2027.

Macro

What Matters More Than Today's 25bp Is the Next Few Moves

Even if the Fed raises rates 25bp today, that outcome is largely priced in. The bigger question is how far markets have already priced in further hikes through year-end and into 2027, and how much the dot plot and press conference reshape that path.

Macro

The Signal Markets Sent Before the FOMC: Nasdaq Fell, But Chips Didn't Break

Oil above $108, the 10-year near 5%, and a 25bp hike almost fully priced in. The question for markets is no longer whether the Fed hikes, but whether this is the last one.

Morning Brief

Brent Hits $106, 10-Year Touches 5%, FOMC Looms: AI Buildout Speed Gets Repriced

The S&P 500 fell just 0.48% but the semiconductor index cratered 5.9% as oil, yields and a rate-hike-leaning Fed collided with fresh doubts about how fast AI infrastructure spending can keep compounding.

Morning Brief

The Week the Fed Hikes for the First Time in Three Years: What Markets Fear Most

$100 oil, the 10-year note flirting with 5%, and this week's FOMC meeting. Markets are already on edge. The real question isn't the 25 basis point hike itself, but whether it marks the start of a new tightening cycle.

Macro

Why the Fed cannot cut: the triple lock of jobs, oil and AI

Inflation is not the only thing blocking a rate cut. A firm labour market, energy prices back on the rise, and an enormous AI investment cycle are each pushing up the floor under US interest rates by a different route.

Macro

September or December? The Fed's next hike is bigger than one CPI print

August payrolls came in strong and July's job losses vanished in revision. The Fed's problem is no longer a collapsing labor market. It is how much to trust the recent cooling in prices.

Macro