Rate Hikes
A central bank raising its policy rate — making borrowing dearer to cool demand and hold prices down.
5% Rates and AI: This Week's Real Variables Are Oil and Cash Flow
The Fed hiked rates for the first time in three years even as core CPI cooled to 2.4% in August. The market's real question this week is not whether inflation has fallen, but whether an oil shock revives inflation expectations and long-term yields, and whether AI earnings are strong enough to survive 5% rates.
25bp Wasn't the Scary Part. Time Is - How September's FOMC Rewrote the Rate Path
The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years, but the bigger story for investors is how long elevated rates could stay in place, possibly through 2027.
It's Not Just Hormuz: Why the Middle East War Is Becoming a Fed Problem Again
The US-Iran ceasefire has already collapsed, and the risk no longer sits in the Gulf alone. With the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline now under threat too, an energy shock is spreading into prices, the Fed, and growth-stock valuations.
Oil at $110, 10-Year Yield at 5%: The Discount Rate on Growth Stocks Is Rising Again
Brent crude spiked to $109.97 intraday and the US 10-year Treasury yield tested the 5% threshold. What matters is not the numbers themselves but that oil-driven inflation fears are pushing bond yields higher across the globe at once.
September or December? The Fed's next hike is bigger than one CPI print
August payrolls came in strong and July's job losses vanished in revision. The Fed's problem is no longer a collapsing labor market. It is how much to trust the recent cooling in prices.
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